| 摘要: |
| 根据隧道火灾事故的不确定性与传统火灾风险分析方法的主观性等特点,以火灾理论以及系统安全工程理论为基础,建立了公路隧道火灾模糊事故树分析(FFTA)模型;应用三角模糊理论,求出基于专家认知水平的基本事件模糊概率及顶上事件发生的模糊概率;最后把导致火灾的各影响因素的关联程度进行了模糊分级比较.通过以上分析得知,隧道中存在火源以及隧道中存在可燃物是导致火灾的最主要要素,其次为灭火措施失效.全面分析引发公路隧道火灾的各种因素及其逻辑关系,动态监测隧道火灾发生的可能性,制定主动、被动防火救灾策略,是降低隧道火灾风险的基本途径,它对保证公路的交通的安全运营与交通事业的可持续发展具有重要意义. |
| 关键词: 系统安全工程 隧道火灾 事故树 模糊概率 三角模糊数 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:U452 |
| 基金项目:河南省煤矿瓦斯与火灾防治重点实验室开放课题项目(HKLGF201102);国家自然科学基金项目(51274100);国家自然科学基金项目(511740890) |
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| Analyzing the risk of road tunnel fire based on fuzzy fault tree method |
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REN Ping-fan1,2,WU Ai-you2,3,SHI Shi-liang31,2,3
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1.Xiangtan City Fire Brigade,Xiangtan 411201,China;2.Henan Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Methane and Fire Prevention,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003,China;3.School of Energy and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China
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| Abstract: |
| On the basis of system safety engineering theory and fire theory,combining the characteristic of the uncertainty and subjectivity of tunnel fire and its traditional fire risk analysis method,a model of tunnel fire named Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis(FFTA)was built．Using triangle fuzzy theory,the fuzzy probability of basis accidents and roof accidents based on experts scognition degree was achieved,then the fuzzy grade of each factors’ relevance giving rise to gas explosion was obtained also．The result show that fire and fuel is the main elements leading to tunnel fire,following by fire-fighting measures ineffective．In order to reducing the risk of tunnel fire,ensuring the safe operation and sustainable development of road transport, we analysis the various factors and its logical relationship of road tunnel fire comprehensive,monitor the possibility of tunnel fire dynamically,and work out the strategy of active and passive fire protection． |
| Key words: system safety engineering tunnel fire fault tree fuzzy probability triangle fuzzy numeral |
