To accurately forecast the inflow of water from shaft is always a problem needed to be solved in engineering practice, in the excavation process of deep and large diameter shaft. The reasonable prediction method was explored which of water inflow during the shaft excavation by theoretical analysis, experimental test and mathematical calculation, Longgu Coal Mine in Shandong was taken as an example. Firstly, the experimental test was carried out to analyze the relationship between stress-strain and permeability. The rock permeability was related to rock properties and it reached to the maximum before and after the rock damage by analyzing the result of experimental test. Secondly, the range of shaft damage zone was calculated by using the theory of rock mechanics and numerical simulation with Flac3D. The conclusions could be got from the calculation: the damage zone of weathered bedrock section was about 2.5 m, it was about 5 m in Permian sandstone and about 3 m in the Carboniferous strata. Finally, the analytical method, numerical simulation method and the Darcy seepage section method were used to calculate the water inflows from shaft, considering whether there was the influence of rock damage zone, respectively. So, the final conclusions were gotten, ignoring the shaft damage zone’s influence on water inflow will lead to the prediction value to become smaller. Applying the formula of Darcy percolation theory in the Quaternary overlying loose layer has better application effect, and the numerical method has much better effects in the deep bedrocks.