Based on mathematical statistics method, the stability affecting factors of the tip-to-face roof were analyzed by orthogonal experiment, the roof caving height as a judgment index, the influence degree of each factor was obtained. Descending order of impact as following: crack growth degree, weathered rock strength, advance speed, tip-to-face distance, the support resistance and mining height. Then, assuming that the tip-to-face roof caving height correlated with each factor linearly, by using SPSS statistical analysis software for each factor multiple linear regression analysis, result showed that the factors and caving height has a linear relationship, and get regression equation of each factor. Finally, according to the results of the analysis proposed specific measures for preventing the tip-to-face roof caving.